Notes

This book is a draft. I’d be delighted to receive any comments you have that could make it better. You can contact me at www.stuartwray.net.

Body

note 1 Overview of the story of scurvy: Scott and Scurvy by Maciej Cegłowski (Online at idlewords.com, March 2010).

note 2 Scott’s knowledge about scurvy in 1911: State of knowledge about scurvy in 1911 by D E Lewis (Proc. Royal Society of Medicine, vol 65, Jan 1972 pp39‒42).

note 3 On Lind, Trotter and Blane: Sailors’ scurvy before and after James Lind — a reassessment by Jeremy Hugh Baron (Nutrition Reviews, vol 67(6), 2009, pp315‒332).

note 4 Szent-Gyögyi’s remarks are from a letter to Linus Pauling, quoted in How to Live Longer and Feel Better by Linus Pauling (1986).

note 5 A nutritionist who read an early draft of this chapter noted that some people complain of stomach ache or diarrhoea when they take too much vitamin C, but this goes away when they reduce the dose, and is “nothing compared with the side effects of most drugs.”

note 6 Gesch’s experiments on prisoners: Full of Goodness by Mark Peplow (New Scientist, 16 Nov 2002, pp38‒41) and Influence of supplementary vitamins, minerals and essential fatty acids on the antisocial behaviour of young adult prisoners: Randomised, placebo-controlled trial by C. Bernard Gesch et al. (British Journal of Psychiatry vol 181, 2002, p22).

note 7 On vitamin D, see for example: Vitamin D Beyond Bones in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: Time to Act by Wim Janssens et. al. (American Journal of Respiritory and Critical Care Medicine, 179(8) pp630‒636, 15 April 2009), Vitamin D better than vaccines at preventing flu, report claims by Oliver Gillie (The Times, 15 March 2010), Randomized comparison of the effects of the vitamin D3 adequate intake versus 100 mcg (4000 IU) per day on biochemical responses and the wellbeing of patients by Reinhold Vieth et. al. (Nutrition Journal 3(8), 19 July 2004).

note 8 Reinhold Vieth quote is from: Vitamin D casts cancer prevention in new light by Martin Mittelstaedt (The Globe and Mail, 28 April 2007).

note 9 On omega-3, see for example: The happy fat by Meredith F. Small (New Scientist, 24 August 2002, p34‒37), The Omega Point (The Economist, 21 Jan 2006, pp80‒81).

note 10 The best book on the science of carbohydrates, sugar and obesity is probably Why We Get Fat: And What to Do about It by Gary Taubes (Knopf, 2010). If I had to select one book that you really must read next, this is it. Slightly older, but with more detail on the history: Good Calories, Bad Calories: Fats, Carbs, and the Controversial Science of Diet and Health by Gary Taubes (Anchor Books, 2008). This paper is a meta-analysis of 21 other studies: Meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies evaluating the association of saturated fat with cardiovascular disease by Siri-Tarino, Sun, Hu and Krauss (American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 91(3) pp535‒46, March 2010). It notes that “there is no significant evidence for concluding that dietary saturated fat is associated with an increased risk of coronary heart disease or cardiovascular disease.”

note 11 On fructose biochemistry and why sugar is bad: Sugar: The Bitter Truth by Robert Lustig (Lecture available on YouTube, July 2009).

note 12 On the properties of sleep: Deep into sleep by Craig Lambert (Harvard magazine, July-Aug 2005, pp25‒33).

note 13 It’s odd really, how little we seem to know about our bodies and our health. Bad practice and out-dated explanations seem to persist a lot longer than they should. The truth, when it appears, can often be rather surprising. For example, who would have guessed that brushing your teeth twice a day could help prevent heart disease and stroke? (See Toothbrushing, inflammation, and risk of cardiovascular disease: results from Scottish Health Survey by de Oliveira, Watt and Hamer (British Medical Journal, 27 May 2010).) Or that the problem with resuscitation after someone’s heart has stopped for a long time is not the absence of oxygen — “oxygen starvation” — but rather its return, which causes mitochondria to self-destruct. Climbers in the Himalayas have a rule of thumb, that “you’re not cold and dead until you’ve been warm and dead first.” Recent medical experience confirms that hypothermia helps a lot when resuscitating the not-quite-dead, as does xenon gas. Some time in the future, perhaps this will be standard practice.

Morals

note 14 The quote about Freud being wrong and dead was related in the lecture From Dissociation to Repression by Jeremy Wolfe (Lecture 17 of the MIT course 9.00 Introduction to Psychology, Fall 2004, available online from MIT OCW).

note 15 On the adaptive unconscious: Strangers to Ourselves: Discovering the Adaptive Unconscious by Timothy D. Wilson (Belnap Press of Harvard University Press, 2002), Blink by Malcolm Gladwell (Allen Lane, 2005) and How We Decide by Jonah Lehrer (Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2009).

note 16 On Paul Ekman and emotions: Emotions Revealed by Paul Ekman (Phoenix, 2004).

note 17 On moral categories: The New Synthesis in Moral Psychology by Jonathan Haidt (Science, Vol 316, 18 May 2007, pp998‒1002).

note 18 On the relationship between political beliefs and moral values, see: Liberals and Conservatives Rely on Different Sets of Moral Foundations by Jesse Graham, Jonathan Haidt, and Brian A. Nosek (Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 2009, 96(5), pp1029‒1046). For a more direct correspondence between disgust and political beliefs, see: Disgust Sensitivity and the Neurophysiology of Left-Right Political Orientations by Kevin Smith et al (PLoS ONE 6(10), October 2011).

note 19 What are morals like in Afghanistan? See The Places In Between by Rory Stewart (2005).

note 20 Descriptions of the “strict father” and “nurturing parents” styles of parenting are from a guest lecture by George Lakoff to the PolySci179 class at Berkeley in the spring term of 2007. This was once available online, but appears to have been lost in a website reorganisation.

note 21 The statistic on mothers going back to work is from The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class by Elizabeth Warren (UC Berkeley Jefferson Memorial Lecture, 8 March 2007).

note 22 On rates of divorce and separation: The End of Men by Hanna Rosin (The Atlantic, July/August 2010).

note 23 Babies do know right from wrong: The Moral Life of Babies (New York Times, May 2010) and The New Science of Morality by Paul Bloom (A talk at the EDGE Conference, 20‒22 July 2010).

note 24 On autism and Asperger’s syndrome: Opinion Interview with Simon Baron-Cohen by Liz Else (New Scientist 14 April 2001, pp42‒45) and The Essential Difference by Simon Baron-Cohen (2004).

note 25 The “I’ve been frightened myself” comment is from Psychopaths among us by Robert Hercz (Saturday Night Magazine, 2001).

note 26 Indicators of psychopathy are taken form check-lists in Without Conscience by Robert Hare (1992) and Snakes in Suits by Babiak and Hare (2007).

note 27 For a slightly different view of psychopaths, emphasising that it isn’t black and white, that there really is a spectrum of psychopathy, see The Psychopath Test by Jon Ronson (2011).

note 28 The Curveball story is from the article ‘Curveball’ speaks, and a reputation as a disinformation agent remains intact by John Goetz and Bob Drogin (Los Angeles Times, 18 June 2008).

note 29 Interviews and presentations by James Fallon on psychopathy: Exploring the Mind of a Killer by James Fallon (TED conference talk, February 2009), Three Ingredients for Murder by James Fallon (Reason TV, 19 August 2010), The Psychopathic Brain by James Fallon (BBC All in the Mind programme, 26 April 2011) and The Mind of a Dictator by James Fallon (Talk at Oslo Freedom Forum 2011, 9 June 2011).

Truth

note 30 People tend to start by believing what they hear, and have to make an effort to disbelieve it: Yes! 50 secrets from the science of persuasion by Goldstein NJ, Martin SJ, Cialdini RB (Profile books, 2007) — see chapter 49, p178.

note 31 Denials can make stories more plausible: Persistence of myths could alter public policy approach by Shankar Vedantam (Washington post, 4 September 2007, A03).

note 32 The story about magician Harry Blackstone is from p129 of The Mind’s Past by Michael Gazzaniga (University of California Press, 1998).

note 33 Demonstrations that people notice a lot less than they think can be found in these papers: Gorillas in our midst: Sustained inattentional blindness for dynamic events by Simons DJ, Chabris CF (Perception vol 28, pp1059‒1074, 1999) and You do not talk about Fight Club if you do not notice Fight Club: Inattentional blindness for a simulated real-world assault by Chabris, Weinberger, Fontaine, Simons (i-Perception vol 2, pp150‒153, 2011).

note 34 The beach-ball experiment of Michal Miller is related in Gazzaniga 1998, p130.

note 35 On memory reconsolidation, see How our brains make memories by Greg Miller (Smithsonian magazine, May 2010).

note 36 For the effect of the cheeky “because,” see Goldstein et al 2007, chapter 38, p140.

note 37 You might like to try this book on logical thinking — it has lots of exercises for you to practice on: Critical reasoning: a practical introduction (3rd Ed.) by Anne Thompson (Routledge, 2009).

note 38 Caffeine increases persuasiveness of strong arguments, but has no effect on persuasiveness wrong arguments: Caffeine, Cognition and Persuasion: Evidence for Caffeine Increasing the Systematic Processing of Persuasive Messages by Pearl Y. Martin, Jenny Laing, Robin Martin and Melanie Mitchell (Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 2005, 35(1), pp160‒182).

note 39 Addiction to nicotine is as bad as cocaine or heroin according to a report “Nicotine Addiction in Britain” from the Royal College of Physicians, quoted in Nicotine ‘is as addictive as cocaine and heroin’ by Jeremy Laurance (The Independent, 9 February 2000).

note 40 On the possible benefits of depression: The Bright Side of Being Blue: Depression as an Adaptation for Analyzing Complex Problems by Paul W. Andrews and J. Anderson Thompson, Jr. (Psychological Review, 2009, vol 116 No 3 pp620‒654). An easier to access account of this idea can be found in Depression’s Upside by Jonah Lehrer (New York Times Magazine, 25 Feb 2010) with further discussion on Lehrer’s website (recapping a lot of the arguments which were actually dealt with in Andrews and Thompson’s paper, but which many people had not been able to access).

Tricks

note 41 Cialdini’s classic textbook is Influence, 5th Ed. by Robert B. Cialdini (Pearson, 2009). He gives a nice precis of his findings in the lecture The Secret Impact of Social Norms by Robert B. Cialdini (RSA lectures 2007, available online).

note 42 See Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman (Allen Lane, 2011) for a thorough account of “prospect theory,” and the experiments which revealed the nature of loss aversion, the sunk costs fallacy and the endowment effect.

note 43 A related phenomenon is the “fickle-friend” effect, which works like this: you do a favour for a friend, which you easily remember. Time passes, and your friend takes their post-favour state for granted. Then you ask for a favour in return, which seems to you like reciprocity, but seems to your friend like a loss — particularly since your friend valued it as a gain when he got the favour, but he now values it as a loss when he’s repaying it! Even if he remembers the favour properly, it still seems like an overall loss!

note 44 The “Drive Safely” story is from Cialdini 2009, p64.

note 45 The “small commitments” quote is from Cialdini 2009, p66.

note 46 On the effect of attractiveness, see Cialdini 2009, p146.

note 47 This other taxonomy of scams is described in Understanding scam victims: seven principles for systems security by Frank Stajano, Paul Wilson (University of Cambridge Computer Laboratory Technical Report number 754, August 2009).

note 48 An example of being tempted into an e-mail scam is described in The psychology of scams: Provoking and committing errors of judgement by University of Exeter School of Psychology (Technical Report OFT1070, Office of Fair Trading, May 2009).

note 49 On the value of censored material, see Cialdini 2009, p210.

Science

note 50 The interview with Simon Schaffer is from the radio series Ideas: How to think about science (First broadcast by CBC on 29 November 2007 Online at cbc.ca/podcasting). The “one image” quote by Simon Schaffer is from episode 1, at 0:40.

note 51 The “very unpleasant” quote by Simon Schaffer is from How to think about science episode 1, at 40:45.

note 52 The book about Boyle and Hobbes that caused Shapin and Shaffer such trouble is Leviathan and the Air-Pump: Hobbes, Boyle, and the Experimental Life by Steven Shapin and Simon Schaffer (1985).

note 53 The “good idea to get rid of it” quote by Simon Schaffer is from How to think about science episode 1, at 16:15.

note 54 For examples of rogue scientists deliberately “gaming” the network of trust, see Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming. by Naomi Oreskes and Erik M. Conway. (2010). For more on ghost-written medical papers, see How drug companies’ PR tactics skew the presentation of medical research by Elliot Ross (Guardian, 20 May 2011).

note 55 On legal wrangling over the Large Hadron Collider, see The Black Hole Case: The Injunction against the end of the world by Eric E. Johnson (Tennessee Law Review, vol76:819 pp819‒908, 2009). See especially “Escaping the vortex,” from p886.

note 56 If we had to pick the “holy scriptures” of Bayesian reasoning, we would probably end up with a list including at least the following: Theory of Probability, 3rd Ed. by Harold Jeffreys (Oxford 1983), Probability Theory: The Logic of Science by Edwin Jaynes (Cambridge 2003), Information Theory, Inference and Learning Algorithms by David MacKay (Cambridge 2003) and Causality: Models, Reasoning and Inference by Judea Pearl (Cambridge 2000).

note 57 The source for Gigerenzer’s cancer quiz is Helping Doctors and Patients Make Sense of Health Statistics. by Gigerenzer G, Gaissmaier W, Kurz-Milcke E, Schwartz L, Woloshin S. (Psychological Science in the Public Interest, 8(2), pp53‒96, November 2007).

note 58 Provocatively titled, but disturbingly perceptive: Why Most Published Research Findings Are False by John P. A. Ioannidis (PLoS Medicine 2, pp101‒106, August 2005).

note 59 A nice overview of survivor bias, and so on: Odds are, it’s wrong by Tom Siegfried (Science News, 177(7), 27 March 2010).

note 60 “Truth unfolds in time through a communal process” is from p339 of The Evolution of Civilizations by Carroll Quigley (Macmillan 1961).

Patterns

note 61 Biographical details on Quigley are from Harry Hogan’s foreword to Quigley 1961.

note 62 List of “human needs” is from Quigley 1961, p101.

note 63 Definition of instruments and institutions: Quigley 1961, p101‒102.

note 64 See The Goal: A Process of Ongoing Improvement by Eliyahu Goldratt (North River Press; Second Revised edition, May 1992).

note 65 For Parkinson’s law, the original article is: Parkinson’s Law by C. Northcote Parkinson (Economist 19 Nov 1955).

note 66 Most terrorist organisations are institutions, not instruments: What Terrorists Really Want: Terrorist Motives and Counterterrorism Strategy by Max Abrahms (International Security, Vol 32, No 4, Spring 2008, pp78‒105).

note 67 Comments on the Hundred Years War from Quigley 1961, p104.

note 68 For finite and infinite games, see Finite and Infinite Games: A Vision of Life as Play and Possibility by James P. Carse (Ballantine Books, 1986). For a talk on the subject, see Religious War in the Light of the Infinite Game by James P. Carse (Long Now seminar, Jan 2005).

note 69 The explanation of dignitas in the Roman Republic is from p374 and pp386‒387 of Weapon Systems and Political Stability by Carroll Quigley (University Press of America, 1983).

note 70 Weber’s definition of sovereignty is from the lecture Politik als Beruf (Politics as a Vocation) by Max Weber (Lecture at Munich University, 1918). In it he also gives an interesting, and still relevant, commentary on the operation of politics in the United States.

note 71 The list of the aspects of sovereignty is from Public Authority and the State in the Western Tradition: A Thousand years of Growth 976‒1976 by Carroll Quigley (Oscar Iden series of lectures at Georgetown University 1976).

note 72 The example of Mexican drug cartels is from The Murderers of Mexico. by Alma Guillermoprieto. (New York Review of Books, 28 October 2010).

note 73 On the power of New York bankers to make law, see Wall Street’s War by Matt Taibi (Rolling Stone, No 1106, 10 June 2010). The figure of one billion dollars on lobbying is from The Empty Chamber by George Packer (The New Yorker, 9 August 2010).

note 74 For a history of the equal protection clause, see Cold Case Democracy: Part one - Breaking and Entering by Vi Ransel (Global Research, 24 January 2010).

note 75 The idea of a cold civil-war is from Spook Country by William Gibson (Viking, 2007).

Threats

note 76 The “single funeral pyre” quote is recounted in: The Fall of the Roman Empire: A New History by Peter Heather (Pan, 2006). There’s an interesting speculation in How the Irish Saved Civilisation by Thomas Cahill (1996) that St. Patrick’s escape from slavery in Ireland may have happened at exactly this time. If his boat landed in Gaul, not Britain, then his report of walking 2 weeks without seeing man nor beast could be a simple report of the aftermath of the invasion.

note 77 See An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith (1776).

note 78 For one version of the story of Lawrence of Arabia, see How David beats Goliath by Malcolm Gladwell (New Yorker, 11 May 2009).

note 79 A book about baseball which gives another good example of “underdog” thinking: Moneyball: The art of winning an unfair game by Michael Lewis (2003).

note 80 The classification of attacks is from Tremble the Devil: The story of terrorism as Jesus Christ, James Bond and Osama Bin Laden would tell it (www.tremblethedevil.com).

note 81 The story of the Irish rebellion is from The Rising — Ireland: Easter 1916 by Fearghal McGarry (2010).

note 82 For background on the Mukden Incident, see The Mukden Incident: September 18‒19, 1931 by Robert H. Ferrell (Journal of Modern History, 27(1), March 1955, pp66‒72).

note 83 Examples of reciprocation in the World War I trenches are described in Critical Mass: How one thing leads to another by Philip Ball (Heinemann, 2004).

note 84 Out of the countless books on warfare in general, perhaps you might like to have a look at The Art of War by Sun Tzu (Written around 500 BC), Small Wars Manual by United States Marine Corps (1940) and Attacks by Erwin Rommel (Athena Press, 1979). Another useful book is the encyclopedic tome Security Engineering (2nd Ed.) by Ross Anderson (Wiley, 2008). This last volume might seem to be from a different genre, but think about it and you will appreciate its relevance.

note 85 The difference between lethal weapons and shock weapons is described in Quigley 1983.

note 86 On Japan’s adoption and abandonment of firearms, see Giving Up the Gun: Japan’s Reversion to the Sword, 1543‒1879 by Noel Perrin (1979).

note 87 For Lanchester’s N-Squared law, see Mathematics in Warfare by Frederick Lanchester (In The world of Mathematics, James R. Newman (Ed.), 1956. See vol 4, pp2138‒2157).

note 88 On how most soldiers don’t like to kill, see On Killing: The Psychological Cost of Learning to Kill in War and Society by Dave Grossman (2009).

note 89 On the difference between murderers and soldiers, see A History of Warfare by John Keegan (1993).

note 90 Examples of “stoned” behaviour of soldiers in Iraq can be seen in The Wounded Platoon (PBS May 2010; BBC2 August 2010).

note 91 On the difference between professional and amateur weapons, see Quigley 1961, pp397 ff.

note 92 Quote about amateur warfare in the buffer fringe from Quigley 1961, pp402‒403.

Promises

note 93 Metal content of the silver denarius: In search of the eternal coin: A long finance view of history by Malcolm Cooper (Long Finance, Z/Yen Group Limited, 2010).

note 94 On Montagu Norman’s deception, see Monetary Policy and Expectations: Market-Control Techniques and the Bank of England, 1925‒1931 by John R. Garrett (The Journal of Economic History, vol 55, issue 3, 1996, pp612‒636).

note 95 Details of gold levels and flows are from Good as Gold by Chris Weber (2011).

note 96 The 1973 quote from the Kuwaiti oil minister is from p595 of The Prize: The epic quest for oil, money and power by Daniel Yergin (Simon and Schuster, 1993).

note 97 The US inflation figures from 1973 to 2011 are derived from data on the financial statistics website “Shadowstats”: Shadow Government Statistics: Analysis Behind and Beyond Government Economic Reporting by John Williams (www.shadowstats.com, 2011).

Blood and Gold

note 98 “Our future history ...” see p42 of Sand Against the Wind: Stillwell and the American Experience in China 1911‒45 by Barbara Tuchman (Futura, 1981).

note 99 Sea otter pelts, see p183; coal, see p189 of Breaking Open Japan: Commodore Perry, Lord Abe and American Imperialism in 1853 by George Feifer (Smithsonian Books, 2006).

note 100 Perry humourless, Feifer p77.

note 101 Reception in new building, Feifer p117 ff.

note 102 Perry’s fourth letter, Feifer p126.

note 103 Perry’s plan for 1854 return, Feifer p223 ff.

note 104 Abe delays one year, Emperor says melt down bells, Feifer p253.

note 105 1858 Treaty of Amity and Commerce, Feifer p280.

note 106 China trade, Tuchman pp31‒35. First Opium War, Feifer p193 ff. Russell and Company, Feifer p215.

note 107 Taiping rebellion, Tuchman p35.

note 108 Second Opium War, Feifer p279.

note 109 1860 samurai visit to US, Feifer p284.

note 110 British indemnity, Feifer p295.

note 111 Satsuma, Choshu dominate Meiji government, Feifer p302.

note 112 “Enrich the Nation, Strengthen the Military,” Feifer p303.

note 113 Okinawa, Feifer p153 ff.

note 114 Sino-Japanese war, see Tuchman p34 and p17 ff of Gold Warriors by Sterling and Peggy Seagrave (Bowstring Books, 2002).

note 115 Murder of Queen Min, Seagrave p14.

note 116 Salisbury’s concern about Russia and France, see p2 of Churchill, Hitler and the Unnecessary War: How Britain Lost its Empire and the West Lost the World. by Patrick J. Buchanan. (Three Rivers Press, 2008).

note 117 US-Britain appeasement, Buchanan p4. Britain’s fantasy of a special relationship, Buchanan p121. On this special relationship, see also comments in At Home: A Short History of Private Life by Bill Bryson (Doubleday, 2010), in particular the observation that in the late nineteenth century, about 1 in 10 of the British establishment had American wives with American money, so it’s possible that their children (like Winston Churchill) had a “mama will kiss it better” feeling about Americans in general. Needless to say this feeling was not reciprocated by members of the American establishment.

note 118 Boxer rebellion, Tuchman p40. Russia’s 200,000 man army, Buchanan p3.

note 119 1902 naval treaty, Buchanan p4. Japan-Russia war, 1904, Seagrave p17, Buchanan p5.

note 120 Plunder of Korea, Seagrave p19 ff.

note 121 “Revive China Society,” Tuchman p40. Chinese reform party and Kuang Hsu, Tuchman p39. Boxers, Tuchman p40.

note 122 Promise of constitution and elections 1905, Tuchman p41.

note 123 Sun Yat-sen in Japan and Hanoi, Tuchman p44.

note 124 Wuhan 1911 revolt, Tuchman p45. Half China industry in Shanghai, Tuchman p30.

note 125 Sun / Yuan President of China, Tuchman p50.

note 126 Japan seizes German possessions, Tuchman p58.

note 127 Washington Naval Conference 1921, Buchanan p116 ff. Treaty is a “major catastrophe” for Britain, Buchanan p120, quoting from Collapse of British Power by Correlli Barnet.

note 128 Three reasons for Britain abandoning Japan, Buchanan p121‒122. Churchill quote, Buchanan p122.

note 129 Chiang “most astute,” Tuchman p335. Chiang background, Tuchman p116, Seagrave p25.

note 130 Sun Yat-sen “cult,” Tuchman p168. Chiang never free of challenges, Tuchman p153.

note 131 Manchurian incident, Tuchman p168, Seagrave p26. Pu-Yi, Tuchman p168. Stimson and Mukden incident, Tuchman p170.

note 132 90% of opium/heroin supplied by Japanese in 1937, Seagrave p30.

note 133 British attitude, Stimson’s position, Buchanan p126.

note 134 Attacks on Shanghai, Seagrave p32, Tuchman p172, also p29‒31 of Human Smoke: The Beginnings of World War II, the End of Civilisation by Nicholson Baker (2008).

note 135 4th bandit suppression campaign, Tuchman p175.

note 136 Stimson “baffled,” Tuchman p175. Stimson’s retelling of Roosevelt’s Japanese conspiracy story is from pp301‒302 of On Active Service in Peace and War by Henry L. Stimson and McGeorge Bundy (Harper and Brothers, 1948).

note 137 Stimson “loved peace so much,” Buchanan p127, quoting Tanshill.

note 138 Warren Delano and China, see p10 ff of FDR by Jean Edward Smith (Random House, 2008).

note 139 Roosevelt library, no notes at cabinet meetings, see p41 of One Christmas in Washington: Churchill and Roosevelt Forge the Grand Alliance by David Bercuson and Holger Herwig (Overlook Press, 2006).

note 140 Roosevelt’s deviousness, cannibalism quote, Brecuson and Herwig p39.

note 141 Isaiah Berlin quote, Brecuson and Herwig p40.

note 142 “Missy” LeHand Christmas quote, Brecuson and Herwig p157.

note 143 Stimson’s “topsy-turvy administration” quote, Brecuson and Herwig p47. Mencken’s “Holy Joe” quote, Brecuson and Herwig p55.

note 144 Amau Doctrine, opium, political penetration, the Long March, Tuchman p179‒179.

note 145 Roosevelt has Picket and Fosdick to tea, Baker p54 (quoting Picket).

note 146 1937 Marco Polo bridge, Tuchman p208, Seagrave p36. 1937 china campaign should have been 90 days, Tuchman p213. Chiang won’t surrender positions, Tuchman p209.

note 147 Chiang attacks Japanese in Shanghai, Tuchman p213. Shanghai casualties, Tuchman p214, Seagrave p37.

note 148 Rape of Nanking, Seagrave p37, Tuchman p224.

note 149 Nanking gold, Seagrave p38.

note 150 Japanese not prepared for war with USA, see p30 of Day of Deceit: The Truth About FDR and Pearl Harbor by Robert B. Stinnett (Touchstone, 2001).

note 151 Thomas Watson’s medal, see p171 of IBM and the Holocaust: The Strategic Alliance Between Nazi Germany and America’s Most Powerful Corporation by Edwin Black (2002).

note 152 Roosevelt “far more preoccupied” by Japan, Tuchman p221. “Navy is being run from the White House,” Baker p82.

note 153 Events of 1939‒40 in Europe, see for example The Origins of the Second World War by A.J.P. Taylor (1961).

note 154 Richardson objects to leaving fleet at Pearl Harbour, Stinnett p17‒18, Baker p179.

note 155 Paris falls, mustard gas, comments of Churchill, Baker pp197‒198.

note 156 See 1940: Myth and reality by Clive Ponting (Elephant paperback, 1993). Total of 775 million pounds at start of 1940, Ponting p8. 10 billion dollars US orders at end 1940, Ponting p213.

note 157 Destroyers for bases trade in 1940, Smith p471‒472.

note 158 USA peace-time draft, Baker p232. No foreign wars, Stinnett p17.

note 159 Roosevelt “more worried than any other thing” quote, Stinnett p28.

note 160 McCollum’s 7 Oct 1940 memo, Stinnett p275.

note 161 McCollum background, Stinnett, p7.

note 162 McCollum delivers military and diplomatic intelligence, Stinnett, p15. Note that McCollum retained all the paperwork on file at his office and supplied Roosevelt with old reports as needed, so that there was no evidence to be found at the White House. This is just the sort of precaution that we might expect of Roosevelt, knowing his aversion to written evidence. But we know that Roosevelt got all these reports from Naval Intelligence because the “routing slips” have survived in the archives, even though the documents they covered are missing or still classified.

note 163 Anderson and Roosevelt, Stinnett p8, p35.

note 164 Richardson’s meeting on 8 October 1940, Stinnett p11, Baker p239. (Both from Richardson’s book On the Treadmill to Pearl Harbor.)

note 165 Threat to imprison crypto people, Stinnett p256.

note 166 Radio fingerprints, Stinnett p53.

note 167 Friedman and Purple, see p22 of The Codebreakers by David Kahn (1967).

note 168 J-series codes, Stinnett p70. PA code, Stinnett p113.

note 169 Japanese navy code, Stinnett pp70‒71. SM code, 5-num code, Stinnett pp75‒77. 5-Num solutions in Radio Intelligence Publication 73 and 80, Stinnett p75. Photos of 57 pages of 5-num codes, Stinnett p265.

note 170 Tracking oil tankers, Stinnett p19‒20. 80% Japanese petroleum from USA, Smith p511.

note 171 Yamamoto war plans, Stinnett p30. Japanese oil needs, Stinnett p120.

note 172 Richardson fired, Kimmel appointed, Stinnett p36.

note 173 Japan war plan leaks to Grew, Stinnett p30.

note 174 Anderson appointed Commander Battleships, Stinnett pp34‒36.

note 175 Contrast between Kimmel and Anderson choice of houses, Stinnett p37.

note 176 Anderson warns off FBI, Stinnett p86.

note 177 Kimmel out of the loop, Stinnett pp37‒38.

note 178 July 1941 “pop-up cruise,” darkened cruisers, Stinnett pp9‒10.

note 179 Dutch oil negotiations, Stinnett p42. Carrier building, Japan oil needs, Stinnett p121.

note 180 World-wide recall of Japanese merchant fleet, Stinnett p129.

note 181 Article on air attack, Stinnett p121. 1938 exercise, Stinnett p147.

note 182 Morimura’s work as Japanese consulate “outside man,” Stinnett pp89‒92.

note 183 Morimura bomb-plot, 21 August 41, Stinnett p98.

note 184 Merchant vessels under Navy control, Stinnett p122.

note 185 Konoye makes peace offer, Smith p520. Konoye nearly assassinated, Smith p522.

note 186 November 1941, Grew warns Washington, Stinnett pp142‒144, Smith p524.

note 187 Beardsall, naval aide, doesn’t appear in usher book, Stinnett p169.

note 188 Marshall briefs reporters, Stinnett pp157‒158.

note 189 Hitokappu Bay, Stinnett p47ff Modus Vivendi proposal from Japanese, Smith pp525‒529.

note 190 Marshall and Stark advise caution, Smith p524.

note 191 Exercise 191, Stinnett pp146‒148.

note 192 “In a bizarre series of coincidences,” Stinnett p146.

note 193 Exercise 191 cancelled early, Stinnett p150.

note 194 Kimmel tries to launch search fleet, Stinnett p151. Vacant Sea directive, Stinnett p144, p166.

note 195 Communications from Japanese fleet on leaving Hitokappu Bay, Stinnett p162 ff

note 196 Kimmel issues warning, Stinnett p166.

note 197 FDR pretends to Stimson he didn’t get it, Stinnett p168. 10 point ultimatum to Japan, Stinnett p218, Smith p525.

note 198 “No satisfactory explanation,” Smith p529.

note 199 Kimmel’s carriers reassigned, Stinnett p152.

note 200 War warning, Stinnett p171‒172.

note 201 Cabinet meeting 28 Nov, Stinnett pp179‒180.

note 202 RDF reports not given to Kimmel, Stinnett p204.

note 203 Tanker radio message, Stinnett p205.

note 204 SS Lurline log, Stinnett p196.

note 205 Radio transmissions from Japan to fleet, Stinnett p184, p217.

note 206 Climb Mount Nitaka, Stinnett p218.

note 207 Consulates to burn code books, Stinnett pp112‒113. Morimura says Pearl Harbor not on alert, 2 Dec, Stinnett p115. Morimura asked AA status Peal Harbor, 6 Dec, Stinnett p113.

note 208 Declaration of war decoded in Washington, Stinnett p229.

note 209 Roosevelt finally sends message to Hirohito, Stinnett p178, Baker p441.

note 210 Stark and Roosevelt talk on phone at midnight, Stinnett p233.

note 211 Last two parts of Japanese message arrive Sunday morning, Stinnett p231.

note 212 Roosevelt’s comments to Chinese ambassador, Baker p441.

note 213 Radar on Hawaii fails to give early warning, Stinnett p237.

note 214 Cabinet meeting Sunday evening, Smith p537.

note 215 Roosevelt’s eeting with Murrow and Donovan, Stinnett pp1‒5.

note 216 Kimmel relieved Stinnett p252. Stark pushed out, Stinnett p12, Smith p537.

note 217 Japanese initially welcomed, Smith p541.

note 218 On Stillwell’s role in China, see Tuchman 1981.

note 219 Japanese looting in 1942, Seagrave p45 ff.

note 220 Mistreatment of POWs, fake hospital-ships, Seagrave p55‒56.

note 221 Figure of 56 railway yards, 13 bridges from p377 of No Bomb: No End by Richard B. Frank (In More What-If? by Robert Cowley (Ed.), 2003).

note 222 Perry’s flag used at 1945 surrender ceremony, Feifer p315.

note 223 Japanese hoards of treasure, Seagrave p63.

note 224 Bretton Woods and gold, Seagrave p99.

note 225 “Gold pot” comment from British, Seagrave p117. 1951 treaty quote, Seagrave p118. POW suffering down-played, Seagrave p56.

note 226 See also the review article The Looting of Asia by Chalmers Johnson (London Review of Books, 20 November 2003). The Seagraves’ book Gold Warriors was the subject of a stiff ignoring in the United States, so historian Chalmers Johnson wrote a review article for the London Review of Books. Johnson discusses the puzzle of Japan’s unusually lenient treatment after World War Two, and comes to the conclusion that the Seagraves’ ideas about the gold would explain a lot.

History and Prophecy

note 227 On the 10,000-year clock, see Neal Stephenson and the 10,000-Year Clock by Kevin Kelly (Blog entry at blog.longnow.org, 2 September 2008).

note 228 We should probably give Marc Bloch credit for the idea of the Longue Durée approach to history, but Fernand Braudel is nowadays a more familiar name. See for example: Civilization and Capitalism, 15th‒18th Century (in 3 volumes) by Fernand Braudel (1979). For an even longer longue durée perspective on European civilisations, back nearly to the ice age, I also quite like Europe Between the Oceans: 9000 BC to AD 1000 by Barry Cunliffe (2008).

note 229 For a good overview of the many theories of collapse, see The Collapse of Complex Societies by Joseph Tainter (Cambridge University Press, 1988). However, note that he doesn’t distinguish between societies and civilisations (some of his examples of societies are civilisations and some aren’t). See Quigley 1961 for a worthwhile definition of the difference.

note 230 The idea of “black swan” events — very rare, very disastrous and contrary to previous experience — is explained in Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets by Nassim Taleb (2004).

note 231 Comments on elite mismanagement are from Tainter 1988, p72.

note 232 The catabolic collapse theory can be found in How Civilizations Fall: A Theory of Catabolic Collapse by John Michael Greer (Available online, 2005). For a more recent update and commentary see also The Onset of Catabolic Collapse by John Michael Greer (Blog entry at thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com, 19 January 2011). For “resource exhaustion” see The Medieval Machine by Jean Gimpel (1988), A Green History of the World by Clive Ponting (1992) and Collapse by Jared Diamond (2005). Tainter 1988 favours “complexity collapse” as a general explanation of collapse.

note 233 Quotes defining resources, capital and waste are from Greer 2005.

note 234 On software maintenance, see p115 ff of Facts and Fallacies of Software Engineering by Robert Glass (2003).

note 235 The figure of $2.2T for infrastructure repairs is from Infrastructure Report Card by American Society of Civil Engineers (www.infrastructurereportcard.org, 2009).

note 236 For more on soil problems, see chapter 20 of The Crash Course by Chris Martenson (Wiley, 2011), and also This Week’s Finds (Week 314/315) interview with Thomas Fischbacher by John Baez (Blog entry at math.ucr.edu/home/baez, 6 June 2011).

note 237 Start of catabolic collapse in 1974? See Greer, 2011.

note 238 Japanese dominate in “producer’s goods,” see The Myth of Japan’s Lost Decades by James Fallows and Eamonn Fingleton (The Atlantic Monthly, February 2011).

note 239 For overview of energy and peak oil, see Martenson 2011, chapters 15 and 16, and particularly p134 and p146. Note that two-thirds of US domestic oil production is used in agriculture, Martenson 2011, p140.

note 240 This is probably not the original source for the term “military Keynesianism,” but it’s certainly explained in Republic or Empire: A National Intelligence Estimate on the United States by Chalmers Johnston (Harper’s Magazine, January 2007).

note 241 United States permanently prepared for war, see Imperial America: Reflections on the United States of Amnesia by Gore Vidal (Nation Books, 2004).

note 242 The figure of $2.3 trillion waste by DoD is from: Rumsfeld cuts Pentagon red tape (BBC News, 10 September 2001, available online).

note 243 On the problems of shareholder capitalism, see The Failure of Shareholder Capitalism by Michael Lind (Salon, 29 March 2011).

note 244 For a discussion of the transfer of money in USA from everyone else to the rich, see Of the 1%, by the 1%, for the 1% by Joseph E. Stiglitz (Vanity Fair, May 2011). See also: The Trillion Dollar Income Shift by Jack Rasmus (Online at www.kylosproductions.com, 11 March 2007). Also see Martenson 2011, which reproduces several economic graphs that change slope dramatically in 1980. For example, USA private debt goes from flat to a 5% increase per year (p72). The personal savings rate was steady at around 8% until 1980, but then dropped sharply, reaching nearly zero by 2000 (p117).

note 245 The Very Big Stupid quote is from: The Real Frank Zappa by Frank Zappa (1989).

note 246 “Unregulated greed” quote is from The Big Things That Matter And The Little Things That Annoy by Paul Craig Roberts (Online at www.vdare.com, 11 August 2010).

note 247 For a good summary of likely disasters, see Global Catastrophes and Trends: The Next Fifty Years by Vaclav Smil (MIT press, 2008).

note 248 On ultimate consequences of global warming, see The Vanishing Face of Gaia: a Final Warning by James Lovelock (Viking, 2009), but for a dissenting view, see also Heretical Thoughts about Science and Society by Freeman Dyson (Online at www.edge.org, 2007).

note 249 For a discussion of how “just in time” manufacturing across the world was disrupted by the 2011 Japanese tsunami, see Japan’s Disaster and the Manufacturing Meltdown by Marc Levinson (Foreign Affairs, 17 April 2011). On the contrast between the robust Soviet Union and the brittle USA, see Reinventing Collapse: The Soviet Experience and American Prospects (revised edition) by Dmitry Orlov (New Society Publishers, 2011).

note 250 For a good overview of energy alternatives, see Sustainable Energy — Without the Hot Air by David MacKay (UIT, 2008. Also online at www.withouthotair.com).

note 251 For an overview of the “travelling wave” reactor, which could run for 50 years without refueling, see Bill Gates on energy: Innovating to zero! by Bill Gates (Talk at TED Conference, Feb 2010).

note 252 The “greatest good lies in the future” quote is from Quigley 1961, p336.

note 253 For history of capitalism and its possible future in China, see The Long Twentieth Century: Money, Power and the Origins of Our Time by Giovanni Arrighi (Verso, 2009) and Adam Smith in Beijing: Lineages of the 21st Century by Giovanni Arrighi (Verso, 2009).

note 254 For a useful view inside the Chinese Communist Party, see The Party: The Secret World of China’s Communist Rulers by Richard McGregor (Allen Lane, 2010).

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